Twins farm prospects and immediate futures

I’ve been reading Aaron Gleeman’s webpage the past few weeks and following his takes on the Twins’ current farm prospects. He’s listed his top 40 and has included a small write on each of them, broken down into stories covering five of them at a time. It’s really good brisk, easy reading and Gleeman summarizes so well it’s hard not to like what he has to say and even harder to disagree.

A lot of the talk – and even excitement – concerning Twins’ prospects has been about third baseman Danny Valencia. Though Valencia (ranked #8 on Gleeman’s webpage) has enjoyed a very successful minor league career up to this point, his stats indicate he likely won’t be the power-hitting machine we’d like to see as Twins fans. He looks to be “a .270 hitter with 15-homer pop, few walks, and a decent glove” as Gleeman summarizes.

Still, I won’t be a bit disappointed if that’s what he turns out to be. It’ll make him the best third baseman prospect since Corey Koskie was called up from the minors – over a decade ago! At a minimum it will signify an improvement in the line of candidates we’ve endured at the hot corner since Koskie’s departure. Glenn Williams’ very brief 13 game stint in 2005 was promising but cut short by serious medical issues with his back. That’s really as good as it got! I’m not counting Nick Punto’s two years of service time at third – though he is capable of making the expert defensive plays there. As a hitter he leaves much to be desired. Yes…he hit .290 in 2006 – with 1 home run and 45 RBIs! Not what any baseball fan would (or should) qualify as the targeted run production from your starting third baseman.

Even if Valencia doesn’t make the team as the everyday third baseman he’ll at least be an upgrade for the infielder super sub bench role. I’ve not got any insider info on whether or not he’s a capable bunter or can steal bases. But at least we wouldn’t have to endure any further Nick Punto 200-foot popouts with runners in scoring position and two outs…or a missed bunt for a third strike.

Other Twins’ prospects that I read about and have me looking forward to their eventual arrival in Minnesota are outfielders Angel Morales, Ben Revere and Aaron Hicks, catcher Wilson Ramos and pitcher Kyle Gibson. They each have had very impressive minor league season stats playing at different levels this past year. I’m guessing we’re likely to see Ramos in the majors first before any of the others – and none of them at the major league level this year. There’s just no reason to start the clock on service time for any of them when we’ve got plenty of stock in Triple-A ready to go.

They would do that, wouldn’t they?

One of the lines I quickly scanned through this morning on the internet reported that one of the Metrodome traditions that will be carried on at Target Field is the Homer Hankie give away.

All those fans who have tickets to the Opening Day game (April 12) against the Boston Red Sox will receive a Homer Hankie as they enter the stadium. Now, I realize it is fun for kids and also acceptable for ladies to wave such a hanky at a ballgame. But there’s something mildly disturbing about seeing multitudes of full-grown adult men waving hankies at a public event. Even if it is a tried and true venerable Twins tradition. It’s just unnatural.

Why can’t we just settle on ‘rally-hats’ and leave it at that? After all we were willing to say goodbye (good riddance?) to the Dome Dog…

Twins Trivia Question – 2/21/10

Q: Which of these players has more career stolen bases as a Minnesota Twins player: Chuck Knoblauch, Rod Carew or Cesar Tovar?

Leave your answer in the comments section below; I’ll publish the answer next Sunday as well as a new question.

The answer to last week’s trivia question is: Harmon Killebrew.

Guessing at OBP figures for NL shortstops

I had a recent, albeit short, discussion with a friend about the potential on-base percentage (OBP) values of National League shortstops for the coming season. When Orlando Cabrera’s name came up my friend suggested that O-Cab had a very good chance at finishing in the top four. And he said this only after amending his statement from a few minutes earlier where he believed Cabrera could be third.

O-Cab has had past seasons where he’s put up respectable, even impressive, numbers for the OBP category and late last season he enjoyed a short period as one of the American League’s hottest hitters after joining the Minnesota Twins. But over the length of a 162 game season batting in the Cincinnati Reds lineup I’m guessing he’ll be a bit less than average.

A quick perusal of the NL shortstops reveals that O-Cab will likely not even crack the top ten. That’s my opinion – but let me share my rankings with you and see if you disagree with me anywhere. There are 16 teams in the senior circuit and two of them have shortstops who will press the .400 mark for OBP: Hanley Ramirez of the Florida Marlins & Troy Tulowitzki of the Colorado Rockies. Ramirez put up a .410 mark and I see him reaching that again – or better; Tulowitzki graded out at .377 but he’ll be pushing for better than that in 2010.

Both of the past All-Star game National League starting shortstops will post higher OPS as well. The Philadelphia Phillies’ Jimmy Rollins had a disappointing 2009 and the New York Mets’ Jose Reyes played in only 36 games last season but still posted an impressive .355. They’re each better bets to post higher OBP than O-Cab. Just beyond those few names are a few other very qualified and commendable shortstops that deserve merit. The Atlanta Braves’ Yunel Escobar, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Rafael Furcal and certainly the Chicago Cubs’ Ryan Theriot, who did skid a little last year (.387 in ’08, .343 in ’09) but I figure to rebound in 2010.

Just as a precaution I’m slotting both the San Diego Padres’ Everth Cabrera and the Milwaukee Brewers’ Alcides Escobar right here as ‘tweeners. They each finished with very admirable stats for the season with Cabrera doing fulltime duty in his first year in the majors while Escobar saw very limited playing time but finished very strong, suggesting good things for the immediate future.

The “also-rans” include the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Stephen Drew, the Washington Nationals’ Christian Guzman and the San Francisco Giants’ Edgar Renteria. The three of them fluctuate so greatly during a full season it’s hard to get a fix on them – will they or won’t they produce? Regardless, OBP has never been the strong suite for any of them.

Those I didn’t mention include: the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have both journeyman Ronny Cedeno and Oakland A’s castoff Bobby Crosby slotted to fill their shortstop position – neither of which figures to impress; the Houston Astros, who have tentatively penciled in rookie Tommy Manzella as their starter. I didn’t tally the Cardinals into my rankings as they previously had Brendan Ryan set as their starter, but now are looking at possibly having a replacement for him when the season opens due to recent surgery. Felipe Lopez has been considered being brought in – who would figure to put up a very respectable OBP in their batting lineup. However, David Eckstein has also been a name dropped as a potential stop-gap measure – and he would undoubtedly put up sub-standard numbers for the OBP category.

So, for the record, my pre-season predictions for OBP are, in order: Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes, Yunel Escobar, Rafael Furcal, Ryan Theriot, Everth Cabrera, Alcides Escobar and the rest. Depending on whether the Cards sign Lopez or Eckstein my best guess is that Orlando Cabrera finishes somewhere in the area between the top nine that mentioned – ten if Lopez comes aboard as the starter in St. Louis – and those categorized as “also-rans” and “why bother to mention them”.

What say you?

Featured baseball card for this week – 2/20/10

Harmon Killebrew & major league baseball in Minnesota are virtually synonymous with one another. The original Minnesota Twins player & legend needs no introduction to anyone who’s followed professional baseball here – if even for just a few weeks. The featured card is #177 from the 1964 Topps series set.

Originally a Washington Senator, along with many others he remained with the team when they relocated the franchise to the Twin Cities in 1961 and changed the name to the Minnesota Twins. Killebrew quickly became the fan’s focal point of their team’s success and he was unquestionably the lynch pin of the Twins formidable batting lineups throughout the 1960′s. Though there were many terrific players on those Minnesota teams of the 60′s (Tony Oliva, Rod Carew, Bob Allison and Jim Kaat to name a few), during that time the mere mention of the name Killebrew stirred up a Twins fan’s passion like no other. It signified undaunted power and tape measure home runs.  His offensive display was evident throughout his playing career. He routinely led the American League in HRs and on more than a few occasions RBIs, base-on-balls and also intentional walks.

Killebrew may have become baseball’s reining home run king – if even only for a short while – had he not lost significant playing time during the 1965 & 1968 seasons. The injuries continued to take their toll in the early 70′s as he saw diminished playing time in the field and alternated with Tony Oliva in the DH slot. What might have been…

During his 22-year major league career, he was second only to Babe Ruth in home runs for an American League player; he retired after the end of the 1975 season as the career leader in home runs by a right-handed batter – which has since been broken. He did however hit the most home runs for a major league player during the 1960′s.

As a result of his power he was nicknamed “Killer” and was at times also referred to as “Hammerin’ Harmon”, which just didn’t seem to stick. That’s unfortunate because the nickname “Killer” just doesn’t fit Killebrew in the least. He was famously known as a quiet, gentle man who never argued a call by a umpire.

An urban legend holds that Harmon Killebrew is in fact the player whose silhouette is featured in the MLB logo. Because it is a silhouette you cannot determine if it is a right-handed or left-handed hitter – the very reason a silhouette was chosen for use.  The Killebrew claim is disputed by MLB officials who insist no players image was used to reproduce the logo. MLB.com states the following: “The MLB logo: No one player has ever been identified as the model of the 1969 Major League Baseball batter logo”.

Can’t we just have our fun? Let’s say it’s Killebrew and leave it at that.

The (somewhat) curious case of Alfonso Soriano

Earlier I was going through the various Fantasy Baseball Big Boards to do some prep for drafting. I was a bit surprised to see how far Alfonso Soriano has fallen in pre-draft rankings, even despite his disappointing 2009 season stats. I didn’t make a wide-sweeping search of all available players fantasy rankings on the web but from the sampling I took he figures to be a 12th – 14th round draft pick. That’s uncharacteristically low for Soriano who’s typically been drafted no later than the fourth or fifth round (in a 10 0r 12 team league…depends) and following his astounding 2002 season the next six consecutive years of fantasy drafting had him off the boards by the end of the second round.

True, he’s had a career relapse since becoming a Chicago Cub – mainly due to a succession of injuries. Last season he failed to reach double figures in stolen bases even though he played in 117 games. And he hit a career worst .241, failing to reach base in less than a third of his plate appearances (a .303 OBP!). Still, it doesn’t seem fitting that Soriano should fall so drastically in rankings. The relevant stats from 2009 may make it seem legitimate to place his value at a slightly less than mid-range outfielder but I tend to disagree.

His recent past performances as a hitter prove his superior abilities and one bad year shouldn’t delineate a quality player like Soriano so grievously. I’ll boldly predict that the injuries he’s endured in each of his seasons in Chicago won’t continue to cause a career slump. Last Friday the Cubs announced that the leftfielder had successfully undergone arthroscopic surgery on his left knee last September and he is on track for spring training and the start of the season. Soriano has unquestionable athleticism to rebound from such a state, although he did – as noted – struggle mightily last year.

I intend to slot him much higher in my pre-draft rankings…and if someone in a league you’re drafting is fortunate enough to get him as a 12th to 14th round – or later – then it goes without saying that he’ll be the bargain of the year for that person.

Felipe Lopez still looking for a home

Currently Johnny Damon is getting all the buzz concerning the free agents still on the market and Felipe Lopez continues to get practically zero interest – none really serious anyway. The most recent news on Lopez has him listed as a potential target for the St. Louis Cardinals and the San Diego Padres and ‘two other teams’ – unnamed of course. How much veracity there is to the ‘two other teams’ interest there’s no way of truly knowing. This much we do know: Lopez has not been the central figure in any headlines throughout the entire Hot Stove league.

So why is it that after Lopez fires his agent (Scott Boras) that suddenly there are four teams with interest in signing him? Simple – his new agent(s) fabricated it. I’m not saying that neither St. Louis or San Diego isn’t interested – I reason they’d have to be to get mention in a nationwide press release. But it’s just as likely they’ve been in contact all winter, and not just since Lopez hired new representation. Now they may have contacted ‘two other teams’ to gauge some known or perceived past interest in their new client but the ‘two other teams’ are likely thrown in for good measure, to make it seem like they’re (the new agency) making some strong headway for Lopez. Not very likely.

The complete lack of interest in signing the very available free agent can be directly attributable to his unreasonably high contract demands. Lopez was coming off a career line high of .310/.383/.427 while splitting the season between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Milwaukee Brewers. He is only 29-y.o. and like most major leaguers his age he was looking for a big payday – something to cash in on before he lands on the wrong side of 30. But Lopez doesn’t have the kind of track record or true pedigree as a hitter to back that up.

Despite that terrific ’09 stat line it’s improbable he’ll have the offensive opportunities to reach numbers similar to that this season. He’s an extremely versatile player with loads of service time at 2B, 3B & SS and has logged over 100 innings of work as a left fielder. He’s not the greatest defender at any of those positions but he is capable of making the big game breaking play to put your team on top.  Lopez isn’t a prototypical everyday starter but definitely a neat offensive-defensive package to have on your bench – just not at the price he was seeking. Boras seldom has trouble finding work for his clients and has a well-publicized reputation of getting teams to overpay for a player’s services during contract negotiations. If he couldn’t sell Lopez at or near the price Lopez was asking then I doubt any other agency can.

Best landing spot for Lopez? Well, who wouldn’t want to play for the Cards??? They’re definitely in need of a player of Lopez’s ability to play multiple infield positions and could take an occasional turn in leftfield. Lopez grades out to be a moderately successful run producer in the batting lineup with the current Cardinals roster of players as well. He did just as much for them in 43 games at the end of the ’08 season. If they’re talking then Lopez should be listening.

A picture is worth a thousand words…

So what if this young teen’s choice of ‘colorful’ words led to some unfortunate consequences…it does seem to have been worth it for entertainment’s sake.

Twins happenings…

The Twins got a nice ‘shout-out’ from the New York Post’s Joel Sherman who made a short list of the off-season’s winners & losers…so far.

1. Roy Halladay going to the Phillies, 2. Twins, 3. Mariners. There were others too but you can check out Sherman’s article for yourself here.

With the beginning of spring training less than a week away now for most major league I think it’s safe to assume that there’s probably no real surprises left as signings go. So I’m agreeing with Sherman’s assessment and rankings and I also think he sizes up the Twins biggest wild card going into 2010 – Francisco Liriano. If the one time Twins’ ace does indeed regain his 2006 form then the team will have found a true ace for the future.

Even if he doesn’t, pitching isn’t the problem that many keep making it out to be. Minnesota does have depth at the position with guys like Anthony Swarzak and a few more in the minors ready for a callup if needed – though experience does have to be a concern. The smart money is on the fact that Twins bats will have a banner year as far as as run production goes with the free agent additions of Jim Thome & Orlando Hudson. Especially against their opponents in the pitching dreadful AL Central division.

The Detroit Tigers & Chicago White Sox each have a few outstanding young pitchers on their respective staffs (Justin Verlander immediately comes to mind of course) but they don’t have the strong supporting staff that the Twins’ bullpen features. Cleveland Indians’ starters Fausto Carmona & Jake Westbrook have to be considered sketchy, with each of them returning to the majors from serious injuries after missing huge amounts of time. Yes, Kansas City does have the AL Cy Young award winner from last season, but beyond that…well, they’re giving Kyle Farnsworth a starters role this year so that should tell you how their staff is shaping up.

Did you see the Yahoo! blog Big League Stew last Friday? It featured a humorous short piece on Twins relief pitcher Pat Neshek who received a most unusual fan letter. If you missed it check it out by clicking on this link.

Mariners planning to use multiple DHs in lineup?

I spent a good portion of this morning catching up on the latest goings-on in major league baseball, mostly perusing several stories over on MLBTradeRumors.com. One of them had to with the Seattle Mariners signing – or actually resigning – Mike Sweeney to a minor league contract with an invite to spring training. With the previous free agent signings of 1B-OF Ryan Garko and getting Ken Griffey, Jr. for one more year, along with the trades for outfielder Milton Bradley (from the Chicago Cubs for pitcher Carlos Silva) and first baseman Casey Kotchman (from the Boston Red Sox for INF-OF Bill Hall) that creates quite a logjam.

Maybe the Mariners are considering using 3 – 4 DHs in the batting lineup and just having defensive specialists Casey Kotchman and the free agent acquisition Chone Figgins cover the entire infield by themselves. The Sweeney signing doesn’t cost the team much money at all – a pittance by comparison to the rest of the payroll. But it’s a positional depth that they really don’t need. Now if Sweeney were a catcher it might make sense. Seattle really should be concerned about the depth at backstop…but that’s a different story altogether…

Afterwards at a press conference Sweeney placed a positive spin on the signing (as many major leaguers are prone to doing) saying the Mariners were “his first choice all winter.” As reported on MLBTradeRumors.com two other clubs had expressed a similar desire but either lost out to the Mariners or lost interest completely. Who knows? The Mariners had earlier this year asked him about the possibility of accepting a coaching opportunity with the organization, but – once again as many major leaguers are prone to do – he decided to wait on a offer from a club that would give him the chance to continue playing.

Sweeney is widely regarded as one of the truly genuine nice guys in the game today so I won’t demean him with any rude comments, but, it’s really unlikely that he’ll get anywhere near the number of at-bats in spring training he would need to make a strong enough impression on the coaching staff to grant him a roster spot. He may surprisingly accept a minor league assignment and wait for the opportunity to join Seattle later in the season when injuries create an opening on the roster. I think the smart money though is on the fact that we’re much more likely to see him appear on the waiver wire when camp breaks along with a slew of other familiar names who are holding on to one last opportunity to make a big league club.